This article is from the VW Technical FAQ, by with numerous contributions by Jan Vandenbrande others.
A: 8 Valve engines, around 60-75k miles, 16V's BEFORE you reach 50k miles. 8V
engines will NOT be damaged if the thing breaks, 16V will be.
The VR6 engines use an actual chain rather than a synthetic belt and do not
have to be changed.
The only exception to the 8V rule is the Heron head used on European
A1 GTIs and on the European 1.05l and 1.3l engines from 1983 on
(not sold in the USA/Canada). It does interfere.
Note that tensioning the belt correctly is tricky, if it's too tight you
may prematurely wear out a bunch of bearings.
VWs recommended method is that you should be able to turn the belt 90 deg.,
in the middle of the crankshaft and camshaft wheel,
holding it just between your thumb and index finger and using no brutal
force. The problem is that we all have different strengths, and therefore
this adjustment is easy to get wrong. Generally I found that the
belt is on snuggly but not tight.
If it's on too tight, you'll hear a characteristic whining/high pitched
sound. <NOISE>
From [Lee Hetherington]: THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS TO SET THE TENSION BY
TRIAL AND ERROR BEFORE YOU PUT THE COVER BACK ON.
From Jens:
There is another way to check for correct tension on the belt.
Try to lift it from the camshaft wheel, it should be possible.
The gap between the belt and the wheel should be about half the height
of the tooth height of the camshaft wheel:
__ __ <-- belt
__ | | __
||_||
|___| <-- camshaft wheel
 
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