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99. APPENDIX IV - Washington, D.C.: a "gun control" paradise (talk.politics.guns Official Pro-Gun FAQ)




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This article is from the talk.politics.guns Official Pro-Gun FAQ, by Ken Barnes (kebarnes@cc.memphis.edu) with numerous contributions by others.

99. APPENDIX IV - Washington, D.C.: a "gun control" paradise (talk.politics.guns Official Pro-Gun FAQ)

Absolute numbers of murders and homicides in the District of Columbia,
as well as population-adjusted rates of murder and homicide during
the years 1957-1994, including those years studied by Loftin, et al.

Sources:

"Uniform Crime Reports" for the United States, 19xx-1994,
Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Dept. of Justice,
SuDoc# J 1.14/7:9xx

"Vital Statistics of the United States, 19xx-1991, Vol. II -
Mortality Part B, National Center for Health Statistics,
U.S. Public Health Service, SuDoc# HE 20.6210:9xx/v.2/pt.B

"Statistical Abstract of the United States 19xx-1994,
Bureau of the Census, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, SuDoc# C 3.134:9xx

Pop(100K) = population estimates (D.C. only, excluding non-D.C.
Metropolitan Statistical Area) and census figures for years
ending in zero, in hundred thousands

MNNM = murder/non-negligent manslaughter

Homicide = Total homicides (including justifiable homicides
and homicides due to "legal intervention" by the police)

MNNM/100K and Hom(icide)/100K are population-adjusted figures
(annual rates per 100,000 population)

* (US)MNNM/100K reflects the population-adjusted MNNM figures
for the entire United States (annual rates per 100,000 population),
"excluding_the population and MNNM of the District of Columbia
Formula:
(US)MNNM/100K = ((usMNNM - dcMNNM) / (usPop - dcPop)) * 100,000

n.a. = not available

LAW = 1976, the year in which D.C.'s Firearms Control Regulations Act
became law (see 3.0.b)

WASHINGTON, D.C.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Year    Pop(100K)   MNNM   Hom   MNNM/100K   Hom/100K  (US)MNNM*/100K
  
1957      7.63       78     68     10.2         8.9          4.7
1958      7.57       74     n.a.    9.8         n.a.         4.7
1959      7.61       74     75      9.7         9.9          4.8
1960      7.63956    81     88     10.6        11.5          5.1
1961      7.75       88     89     11.4        11.5          4.8
1962      7.8        91     99     11.7        12.7          4.6
1963      7.95       95     88     12.0        11.1          4.6
1964      7.98      132    117     16.5 <uptrn 14.7  upturn> 4.9
1965      7.97      148    122     18.6        15.3          5.1
1966      7.91      141    133     17.8        16.8          5.6
1967      7.91      178    174     22.5        22.0          6.1
  
1968      7.78      195    157     25.1        20.2          6.9
1969      7.62      287    243     37.7        31.9          7.2
1970      7.56570   221    200     29.2        26.4          7.8
1971      7.58      275    263     36.3        34.7          8.5
1972      7.52      245    252     32.6        33.5          8.9
1973      7.37      268    260     36.4        35.3          9.3
1974      7.23      277    275     38.3 <high  38.0    high> 9.7
1975      7.12      235    242     33.0        34.0          9.6
1976      7.0    -- 188 -- 202 LAW 26.9 <low-- 28.9 -- low>  8.7
1977      6.85      192    187     28.0        27.3          8.8
1978      6.71      189    172     28.2        25.6          8.9
1979      6.56      180    184     27.4        28.1          9.7
1980      6.35233   200    175     31.5        27.6   high> 10.2
1981      6.36      223    223     35.1 <high  35.1          9.8
1982      6.31      194    213     30.7        33.8          9.0
1983      6.23      183    163     29.4        26.2          8.2
1984      6.23      175    167     28.1        26.8          7.9
1985      6.26      147    146     23.5 <low   23.3     low> 7.9
1986      6.26      194    176     31.0        28.1          8.5
1987      6.22      225    210     36.2        33.8          8.2
  
1988      6.2       369    308     59.5 <uptrn 49.7  upturn> 8.3
1989      6.04      434    360     71.9        59.6          8.5
1990      6.069     472    403     77.9        66.5          9.3
1991      5.98      482    417     80.6 <high  69.7    high> 9.6
1992      5.89      443    389     75.2        66.0          9.2
1993      5.78      454    n.a.    78.6        n.a.          9.4
1994      5.70      399    n.a.    70.0        n.a.          8.8
1995      5.54      360    n.a.    65.0        n.a.          8.1

Analysis: Hom(icide) represents the same source that Loftin, et al.
used, although they had the raw data broken down by months, not years,
and used the firearm-related homicides, not total homicides. They
also did not correct for the gradual decline in D.C.'s population
which began at about the same time as MNNM began to increase sharply
in D.C. during the late 1960s.
As can be seen from the data above, the D.C. MNNM stats are an
exaggeration of the national trend. Attributing the slight decline
in homicides which occurred during 1976-1979 to the enactment of
the D.C. "gun control" law is somewhat doubtful, especially because
the decline had already begun in 1976, and for most of that year,
the law wasn't in effect. If there was actually any such decline,
it was unquestionably short-lived.
Loftin, et al. were fortunate that their study concluded in 1987,
before the NCHS numbers illustrating D.C.'s skyrocketing homicide
rate would have been available. The FBI's UCR numbers, which would
be available sooner, told a shocking story even as Loftin, et al.
were going to press. (Note also the vast differences between the
total homicide numbers as reported by the National Center for Health
Statistics and the MNNM numbers reported by the Federal Bureau of
Investigation during the 1988-1991 period! People were evidently
getting killed so fast that the doctors lost count...)

 

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