99. APPENDIX IV - Washington, D.C.: a "gun control" paradise (talk.politics.guns Official Pro-Gun FAQ)
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This article is from the talk.politics.guns Official Pro-Gun FAQ, by Ken Barnes (kebarnes@cc.memphis.edu) with numerous contributions by others.
99. APPENDIX IV - Washington, D.C.: a "gun control" paradise (talk.politics.guns Official Pro-Gun FAQ)
Absolute numbers of murders and homicides in the District of Columbia,
as well as population-adjusted rates of murder and homicide during
the years 1957-1994, including those years studied by Loftin, et al.
Sources:
"Uniform Crime Reports" for the United States, 19xx-1994,
Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Dept. of Justice,
SuDoc# J 1.14/7:9xx
"Vital Statistics of the United States, 19xx-1991, Vol. II -
Mortality Part B, National Center for Health Statistics,
U.S. Public Health Service, SuDoc# HE 20.6210:9xx/v.2/pt.B
"Statistical Abstract of the United States 19xx-1994,
Bureau of the Census, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, SuDoc# C 3.134:9xx
Pop(100K) = population estimates (D.C. only, excluding non-D.C.
Metropolitan Statistical Area) and census figures for years
ending in zero, in hundred thousands
MNNM = murder/non-negligent manslaughter
Homicide = Total homicides (including justifiable homicides
and homicides due to "legal intervention" by the police)
MNNM/100K and Hom(icide)/100K are population-adjusted figures
(annual rates per 100,000 population)
* (US)MNNM/100K reflects the population-adjusted MNNM figures
for the entire United States (annual rates per 100,000 population),
"excluding_the population and MNNM of the District of Columbia
Formula:
(US)MNNM/100K = ((usMNNM - dcMNNM) / (usPop - dcPop)) * 100,000
n.a. = not available
LAW = 1976, the year in which D.C.'s Firearms Control Regulations Act
became law (see 3.0.b)
WASHINGTON, D.C. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Pop(100K) MNNM Hom MNNM/100K Hom/100K (US)MNNM*/100K 1957 7.63 78 68 10.2 8.9 4.7 1958 7.57 74 n.a. 9.8 n.a. 4.7 1959 7.61 74 75 9.7 9.9 4.8 1960 7.63956 81 88 10.6 11.5 5.1 1961 7.75 88 89 11.4 11.5 4.8 1962 7.8 91 99 11.7 12.7 4.6 1963 7.95 95 88 12.0 11.1 4.6 1964 7.98 132 117 16.5 <uptrn 14.7 upturn> 4.9 1965 7.97 148 122 18.6 15.3 5.1 1966 7.91 141 133 17.8 16.8 5.6 1967 7.91 178 174 22.5 22.0 6.1 1968 7.78 195 157 25.1 20.2 6.9 1969 7.62 287 243 37.7 31.9 7.2 1970 7.56570 221 200 29.2 26.4 7.8 1971 7.58 275 263 36.3 34.7 8.5 1972 7.52 245 252 32.6 33.5 8.9 1973 7.37 268 260 36.4 35.3 9.3 1974 7.23 277 275 38.3 <high 38.0 high> 9.7 1975 7.12 235 242 33.0 34.0 9.6 1976 7.0 -- 188 -- 202 LAW 26.9 <low-- 28.9 -- low> 8.7 1977 6.85 192 187 28.0 27.3 8.8 1978 6.71 189 172 28.2 25.6 8.9 1979 6.56 180 184 27.4 28.1 9.7 1980 6.35233 200 175 31.5 27.6 high> 10.2 1981 6.36 223 223 35.1 <high 35.1 9.8 1982 6.31 194 213 30.7 33.8 9.0 1983 6.23 183 163 29.4 26.2 8.2 1984 6.23 175 167 28.1 26.8 7.9 1985 6.26 147 146 23.5 <low 23.3 low> 7.9 1986 6.26 194 176 31.0 28.1 8.5 1987 6.22 225 210 36.2 33.8 8.2 1988 6.2 369 308 59.5 <uptrn 49.7 upturn> 8.3 1989 6.04 434 360 71.9 59.6 8.5 1990 6.069 472 403 77.9 66.5 9.3 1991 5.98 482 417 80.6 <high 69.7 high> 9.6 1992 5.89 443 389 75.2 66.0 9.2 1993 5.78 454 n.a. 78.6 n.a. 9.4 1994 5.70 399 n.a. 70.0 n.a. 8.8 1995 5.54 360 n.a. 65.0 n.a. 8.1
Analysis: Hom(icide) represents the same source that Loftin, et al.
used, although they had the raw data broken down by months, not years,
and used the firearm-related homicides, not total homicides. They
also did not correct for the gradual decline in D.C.'s population
which began at about the same time as MNNM began to increase sharply
in D.C. during the late 1960s.
As can be seen from the data above, the D.C. MNNM stats are an
exaggeration of the national trend. Attributing the slight decline
in homicides which occurred during 1976-1979 to the enactment of
the D.C. "gun control" law is somewhat doubtful, especially because
the decline had already begun in 1976, and for most of that year,
the law wasn't in effect. If there was actually any such decline,
it was unquestionably short-lived.
Loftin, et al. were fortunate that their study concluded in 1987,
before the NCHS numbers illustrating D.C.'s skyrocketing homicide
rate would have been available. The FBI's UCR numbers, which would
be available sooner, told a shocking story even as Loftin, et al.
were going to press. (Note also the vast differences between the
total homicide numbers as reported by the National Center for Health
Statistics and the MNNM numbers reported by the Federal Bureau of
Investigation during the 1988-1991 period! People were evidently
getting killed so fast that the doctors lost count...)
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