99. APPENDIX II - Concealed Carry Reality vs. "Gunshine State" Fantasy (talk.politics.guns Official Pro-Gun FAQ)
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This article is from the talk.politics.guns Official Pro-Gun FAQ, by Ken Barnes (kebarnes@cc.memphis.edu) with numerous contributions by others.
99. APPENDIX II - Concealed Carry Reality vs. "Gunshine State" Fantasy (talk.politics.guns Official Pro-Gun FAQ)
Murder rates in Florida Cities included in U. Maryland CCW 'study'
Source: "Uniform Crime Reports" for the United States, 19xx-1995,
Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Dept. of Justice,
SuDoc# J 1.14/7:9xx
pop. = population (city limits, in thousands)
MNNM = murder/non-negligent manslaughter
MN100K = population-adjusted rate of MNNM (per 100,000 persons)
1984 1985 1986 1987* 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Miami
pop. 400.6 385.9 396.4 385.1 381.2 358.5 367.9 373.8 372.5 380.0 378.7
MNNM 170 131 148 128 132 129 134 128 127 116 110
MN100K 42.4 33.9 37.3 33.2 34.6 36.0 36.4 34.2 34.1 30.5 29.0
Tampa
pop. 289.3 285.3 293.0 285.9 289.4 280.0 287.4 291.9 288.9 294.7 289.9
MNNM 52 70 79 61 57 60 64 49 43 62 47
MN100K 18.0 24.5 27.0 21.3 19.7 21.4 22.3 16.8 14.9 21.0 16.2
Jacksonville
pop. 582.4 601.0 616.7 629.9 654.7 636.7 653.5 663.9 672.3 685.8 679.1
MNNM 103 90 119 147 165 176 128 123 125 106 86
MN100K 17.7 15.0 19.3 23.3 25.2 27.6 19.6 18.5 18.6 15.5 12.7
Statewide, FL (FL, 1963 = 8.2)
MN100K 11.5 11.4 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.7 9.4 9.0 8.9 8.4 7.3
U.S. (U.S. 1963 = 4.6)
MN100K 7.9 7.9 8.6 8.3 8.7 9.4 9.8 9.3 9.5 9.0 8.2
* Data for 1988 in the states of Florida and Kentucky were
not available due to reporting problems at the state level.
Analysis: Figures for cities given are for city limits, not metro
area, although metro area figures are available. As more violent
crime tends to occur in urban areas, rather than suburbs, however,
if anything, the figures ought to be biased in the direction of
more murders, rather than fewer. Each of the cities included in
the U. Maryland study has shown declines in murder/non-negligent
manslaughter rates per 100,000 population since the passage of
Florida's concealed carry reform law in 1987. This is not to say
that the increase in concealed carry permits_caused_this decline,
but it does show that murder rates have declined, rather than
increased, since the law was enacted. Further, the statewide
murder/non-negligent manslaughter rates for Florida (per 100,000
population) have declined from well above the national rate to
slightly below the national rate during this same period, and are
now below where they were over 30 years ago, prior to enactment of
major federal gun control bills like the 1968 Gun Control Act, which
prohibited mail order gun sales to ordinary citizens, among other
restrictions. It is interesting to note that, of the three Florida
cities selected by the U. Maryland researchers as the basis of their
'study', all three have historical rates of murder/non-negligent
manslaughter_much_higher_than the average for the state as a whole,
which raises questions concerning how representative a sample they are,
especially considering that the concealed-carry law applies statewide.
Essentially, the U. Maryland study may only have demonstrated what
was already known, namely that urban areas often have higher violent
crime rates than non-urban areas, and that the rates of violent crime
in the U.S have increased since the late 1960s. (In comparing a
baseline of 1973-1986 to the 1987-1991 period, the question remains
whether one could observe similar or worse increases in homicides
in areas_not_subject to concealed carry reform laws.) The University
of Maryland researchers have not stated whether they blame concealed-
carry permit holders for the increase in homicides which they noted
in their study, but evidence from the Florida Department of State
which issues the permits shows that crime among CCW permit holders
is virtually unknown (Kleck,"Point Blank,"see 3.8).
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