## Description

This article is from the Puzzles FAQ,
by Chris Cole chris@questrel.questrel.com and Matthew Daly
mwdaly@pobox.com with numerous contributions by others.

# 97 combinatorics/color.p

An urn contains n balls of different colors. Randomly select a pair, repaint

the first to match the second, and replace the pair in the urn. What is the

expected time until the balls are all the same color?

combinatorics/color.s

(n-1)^2.

If the color classes have sizes k1, k2, ..., km, then the expected number of

steps from here is (dropping the subscript on k):

2 k(k-1) (j-1) (k-j)
(n-1) - SUM ( ------ + SUM --------------- )
classes, 2 1<j<k (n-j)
class.size=k

The verification goes roughly as follows. Defining phi(k) as (k(k-1)/2 +

sum[j]...), we first show that phi(k+1) + phi(k-1) - 2*phi(k) = (n-1)/(n-k)

except when k=n; the k(k-1)/2 contributes 1, the term j=k contributes

(j-1)/(n-j)=(k-1)/(n-k), and the other summands j<k contribute nothing.

Then we say that the expected change in phi(k) on a given color class is

k*(n-k)/(n*(n-1)) times (phi(k+1) + phi(k-1) - 2*phi(k)), since with

probability k*(n-k)/(n*(n-1)) the class goes to size k+1 and with the same

probability it goes to size k-1. This expected change comes out to k/n.

Summing over the color classes (and remembering the minus sign), the

expected change in the "cost from here" on one step is -1, except when we're

already monochromatic, where the handy exception k=n kicks in.

One can rewrite the contribution from k as

(n-1) SUM (k-j)/(n-j)
0<j<k

which incorporates both the k(k-1)/2 and the previous sum over j.

That makes the proof a little cleaner.

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