36 How has Dr. Gray done in previous years of forecasting hurricanes?
Description
This article is from the Storms FAQ, by Chris Landsea landsea@aoml.noaa.gov with numerous contributions by others.
36 How has Dr. Gray done in previous years of forecasting hurricanes?
Here are the numbers that Dr. Gray has issued for his real-time Atlantic
tropical cyclone seasonal forecasting:
Year Early December Early June Early August Observed
Forecast Forecast Forecast
Named Storms: 1950 to 1990 Mean = 9.3
1984 --- 10 10 12
1985 --- 11 10 11
1986 --- 8 7 6
1987 --- 8 7 7
1988 --- 11 11 12
1989 --- 7 9 11
1990 --- 11 11 14
1991 --- 8 7 8
1992 8 8 8 6
1993 11 11 10 8
1994 10 9 7 7
1995 12 12 16 19
1996 8 10 11 13
Hurricanes: 1950 to 1990 Mean = 5.8
1984 --- 7 7 5
1985 --- 8 7 7
1986 --- 4 4 4
1987 --- 5 4 3
1988 --- 7 7 5
1989 --- 4 4 7
1990 --- 7 6 8
1991 --- 4 3 4
1992 4 4 4 4
1993 6 7 6 4
1994 6 5 4 3
1995 8 8 9 11
1996 5 6 7 9
Intense Hurricanes: 1950 to 1990 Mean = 2.3
1990 --- 3 2 1
1991 --- 1 0 2
1992 1 1 1 1
1993 3 2 2 1
1994 2 1 1 0
1995 3 3 3 5
1996 2 2 3 6
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