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36 How has Dr. Gray done in previous years of forecasting hurricanes?




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This article is from the Storms FAQ, by Chris Landsea landsea@aoml.noaa.gov with numerous contributions by others.

36 How has Dr. Gray done in previous years of forecasting hurricanes?

Here are the numbers that Dr. Gray has issued for his real-time Atlantic
tropical cyclone seasonal forecasting:

Year             Early December    Early June  Early August   Observed 
                 Forecast          Forecast    Forecast    
  
Named Storms: 1950 to 1990 Mean = 9.3 
1984                ---               10          10            12 
1985                ---               11          10            11
1986                ---                8           7             6
1987                ---                8           7             7
1988                ---               11          11            12
1989                ---                7           9            11
1990                ---               11          11            14
1991                ---                8           7             8
1992                 8                 8           8             6
1993                11                11          10             8
1994                10                 9           7             7
1995                12                12          16            19
1996                 8                10          11            13
  
Hurricanes: 1950 to 1990 Mean = 5.8
1984                ---                7           7             5
1985                ---                8           7             7
1986                ---                4           4             4
1987                ---                5           4             3
1988                ---                7           7             5
1989                ---                4           4             7
1990                ---                7           6             8
1991                ---                4           3             4
1992                 4                 4           4             4
1993                 6                 7           6             4
1994                 6                 5           4             3
1995                 8                 8           9            11
1996                 5                 6           7             9
  
Intense Hurricanes: 1950 to 1990 Mean = 2.3
1990                ---                3           2             1
1991                ---                1           0             2
1992                 1                 1           1             1
1993                 3                 2           2             1
1994                 2                 1           1             0
1995                 3                 3           3             5
1996                 2                 2           3             6

 

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