1.9 How quickly will DVD become established?
Description
This article is from the DVD Formats FAQ, by jtfrog@usa.net (Jim Taylor) with numerous contributions by others.
1.9 How quickly will DVD become established?
Not as fast as generally predicted, but faster than videotape, laserdisc,
and CD. By the end of 1997 over 500,000 DVD-Video players shipped
worldwide. 349,482 of these were in the US (with about 200,000 actually
sold into homes). About 600 DVD video titles were available in the US, with
over 5 million copies shipped and about 2 million sold. Around 330,000
DVD-ROM drives were shipped worldwide with about 1 million bundled DVD-ROM
titles. Only 60 DVD-ROM titles were available by the end of 1997, most of
them bundled with PCs or drive upgrade kits.
By the end of 1999, there were almost 5 million DVD-Video players in the
US, and about 30 million DVD PCs.
Here are some predictions:
* Toshiba (1996): 100,000 to 150,000 DVD-Video players will be sold in
Japan between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 1996, and 750,000-1 million by Nov.
1, 1997. (Actual count of combined shipments by Matsushita, Pioneer,
and Toshiba was 70,000 in Oct-Dec 1996.)
* Pioneer (1996): 400,000 DVD-Video players in 1996, 11 million by 2000.
100,000 DVD-Audio players in 1996, 4 million by 2000.
* InfoTech (1996): 820,000 DVD-Video players in first year, 80 million
by 2005.
* CEMA (1997): 400,000 DVD-Video players in U.S. in 1997, 1 million in
1998.
* Time-Warner (1996): 10 million DVD players in the U.S. by 2002.
* Paul Kagan (1997): 800,000 DVD players in the U.S. in 1997, 10 million
in 2000, and 40 million in 2006 (43% penetration). 5.6 million discs
sold in 1997, 172 million discs in 2000, and 623 million in 2006.
* C-Cube (1996): 1 million players and drives in 1997.
* BASES: 3 million DVD-Video players sold in first year, 13 million sold
in 6th year.
* Dataquest (1997): over 33 million shipments of DVD players and drives
by 2000.
* Philips (1996): 25 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide by 2000 (10% of
projected 250 million optical drives).
* Pioneer (1996): 500,000 DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, 54 million sold
in 2000.
* Toshiba (1996): 120 million DVD-ROM drives in 2000 (80% penetration of
100 million PCs). Toshiba says they will no longer make CD-ROM drives
in 2000.
* IDC (1997): 10 million DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, 70 million sold in
2000 (surpassing CD-ROM), 118 million sold in 2001. Over 13% of all
software available on DVD-ROM in 1998. DVD recordable drives more than
90% of combined CD/DVD recordable market in 2001.
* AMI (1997): installed base of 7 million DVD-ROM drives by 2000.
* Intel (1997): 70 million DVD-ROM drives by 1999 (sales will surpass
CD-ROM drives in 1998).
* SMD (1997): 100 million DVD-ROM/RAM drives shipped in 2000.
* Microsoft (Peter Biddle, 1997): 15 million DVD PCs sold in 1998, 50
million DVD PCs sold in 1999.
* Microsoft (Jim Taylor, 1998): installed base of 35 million DVD PCs in
1999.
* Forrester Research (1997): U.S. base of 53 million DVD-equipped PCs by
2002. 5.2% of U.S. households (5 million) will have a DVD-V player in
2002; 2% will have a DVD-Audio player.
* Yankee Group (Jan 1998): 650,000 DVD-Video players by 1998, 3.6
million by 2001. 19 million DVD-PCs by 2001.
* InfoTech (Jan 1998): 20 million DVD-Video players worldwide in 2002,
58 million by 2005. 99 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide in 2005. No
more than 500 DVD-ROM titles available by the end of 1998. About
80,000 DVD-ROM titles available by 2005.
* Screen Digest (Dec 1998): 125,000 DVD-Video player in European homes
in 1998, 485,000 in 1999, 1 million in 2000.
Here's reality:
* 1997
o 347,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S.
o 900 DVD-Video titles in the U.S.
* 1998
o 906,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. 1,253,000 total
player shipments since March 1997.
o 400 DVD-Video titles in Europe (135 movie and music titles).
o 3,000 DVD-Video titles in the U.S. (2000 movie and music titles).
o 7.2 million DVD-Video discs purchased.
For comparison, there were about 700 million audio CD players and 160
million CD-ROM drives worldwide in 1997. 1.2 billion CD-ROMs were shipped
worldwide in 1997 from a base of about 46,000 different titles. There are
about 80 million VCRs in the U.S. (89% of households) and about 400 million
worldwide. 110,000 VCRs shipped in the first two years after release.
Nearly 16 million VCRs were shipped in 1998. There are about 3 million
laserdisc players in the U.S. There are about 270 million TVs in the U.S.
and 1.3 billion worldwide.
Continue to:
My Books
